Work

The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09

Year: 2013

Type: article

Abstract: The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the twenty-first century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this article is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision-relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end of this century.

Source: Philosophy of Science

DOI: 10.1086/673892

Authors: Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith, David A. Stainforth

Institutions: London School of Economics and Political Science, University of Oxford

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: bronze

Funders: Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, Arts and Humanities Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council