Energy systems and climate policy - Long-term scenarios for an uncertain future
Year: 2007
Type: dissertation
Abstract: In this thesis various forms of scenario analysis are discussed both to \nexplore 1) how energy system and associated greenhouse gas emissions may \ndevelop in the absence of climate policy and 2) how strategies aimed at \ndrastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions may turn out. As \nuncertainties play a major role in long-term scenarios, the thesis also \ndiscusses various forms of dealing with uncertainty in scenario analysis. \nThe thesis finds that global emissions are expected to continue to grow \nunder a wide-range of different assumptions in the absense of climate \npolicy. At the same time, the required reductions for reaching low \ngreenhouse gas concentrations levels consistent with a 2 degree Celsius \ntarget are shown to be technically feasible within a likely range of direct \ncosts of 1-2% of GDP. However, this will require immediate action using a \nbroad range of options and worldwide participation in mitigating greenhouse \ngas emissions. Possible crucial factors in determining the likelihood of \nachieving ambitious climate targets include assumptions on technology \ndevelopment and the possible links between climate policy and such related \nissues as the reduction of air pollution.
Author: Detlef P. van Vuuren
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2148383839