Work

Probabilistic Polling And Voting In The 2008 Presidential Election

Year: 2010

Type: article

Abstract: . Membership in the consistently pro- or anti-Obama group is an almost perfect predictor of actual voting behavior, while the undecided/vacillators group has more nuanced voting behavior. We find that treating the ALP as a panel improves predictive power: current and previous polling responses together provide more predictive power than do current responses alone.

Source: Public Opinion Quarterly

DOI: 10.1093/poq/nfq019

Authors: Adeline Delavande, Charles F. Manski

Institutions: RAND Corporation, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Northwestern University

Language: English

Topic: Electoral Systems and Political Participation

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2164849828

FWCI: 8.358

Cites: 35

Cited by: 37

Related to: 10