Private Investor Participation and Commercialization Rates for Government‐sponsored Research and Development: Would a Prediction Market Improve the Performance of the SBIR Programme?
Year: 2008
Type: article
Abstract: An objective of the US Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) programme is the private sector commercialization of funded R&D projects. However, our estimate of the actual or expected probability of commercialization of such R&D is fairly low; our analysis of Department of Defense (DoD) Phase II awards suggests that the estimated probability of commercialization is only 0.47. We investigate econometrically whether outside private investors have useful information about proposed SBIR projects' prospects for commercialization. Our findings suggest that they do, thereby providing support for the possibility that a prediction market could improve the performance of the SBIR programme.
Source: Economica
Authors: ALBERT N. LINK, JOHN T. SCOTT
Institutions: University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Dartmouth College
Language: English
Topic: Innovation Policy and R&D
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funder: National Science Foundation
OpenAlex ID: W2164942553