Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to American Presidential Elections
Year: 2007
Type: paratext
Abstract: Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential election since 1860, retrospectively through 1980 and prospectively from 1984-2004. Given this record, it seems sensible to examine this index method. We tested how well the Keys model predicted the winner of the popular vote, and also how closely it forecasted the actual percentage of the two-party vote going to the incumbent ticket. The index method performs well compared with regression models. It also offers the opportunity to incorporate many policy variables. Index methods can be applied to various choice problems faced by organizations.
Authors: J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán
Institutions: University of Pennsylvania, University of West Florida
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2165399378