Year: 1987
Type: report
Abstract: In this paper, we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies.The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period and for all sub-periods for a variety of aggregate returns indexes and size-sorted portfolios.Although the rejections are largely due to the behavior of small stocks, they cannot be ascribed to either the effects of infrequent trading or time-varying volatilities.Moreover, the rejection of the random walk cannot be interpreted as supporting a mean-reverting stationary model of asset prices, but is more consistent with a specific nonstationary alternative hypothesis.
DOI: 10.3386/w2168
Authors: Andrew Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay
Institution: University of Pennsylvania
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2166414208