Year: 2008
Type: article
Abstract: This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of fish catches in the Songkhla Lake basin in southern Thailand.Data comprise a total monthly fish catch in tonnes from January 1977 to December 2006.We fitted an observation-driven model to the logarithm of the total monthly fish catch.The model contains seasonal effects and time-lagged terms for the preceding two months.We obtained an r-squared of 51% with both the seasonal and timelagged coefficients which was statistically significant.Although the catch has decreased substantially in the last ten years, no long-term trend is evident.This model can be used for short-term and possibly medium-term fish catch forecasting.The catch in the Songkhla Lake basin may have exceeded the sustainable capacity due to over-exploitation and illegal fishing.Strengthening the political will to develop enforceable and sustainable fishing practices is therefore desirable.
Source: ScienceAsia
Authors: Sarawuth Chesoh, Apiradee Lim
Language: English
Domain: Life Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W4246519697