Simulation of accidents in a chemical industry using the software package MAXCRED
Year: 1996
Type: article
Abstract: A new and elaborate software package MAXCRED (MAXimum CREDible accident analysis) has been used for generating accident scenarios and estimating damage potential for a typical industry. Four different scenarios have been generated for explosions, fires, as well as toxic releases. The da mage they would cause has been estimated. The studies indicate that a confined vapour cloud explo sion followed by fire would be the worst disaster scenario and would also have the highest probability of leading to 'cascading' or 'domino' effects. ,I J I Use of hazardous materials in a process industry give rise to the probability of an accident or a chain of accidents. These accidents can be charac terized as large fires, explosions, generation of toxic cloud and dispersion of toxic gases. The as sessment of the possible intensity and damage potential of such accidents is difficult and tedious, mainly due to non-availability of sufficient back ground information. Maximum credible accident analysis (MCAA)1 - 3 is an approach to assess the damage potential of chemical plant or industrial complex to the surroundings and the environment. MCAA comprises of following main steps - (i) study of the plant to identify hazardous materials and their capacities, (ii) identification of vulnerable sections, (iii) visualization of different accident scenarios, (iv) damage calculation through mathematical mo deling, and (v) delineation of maximum credible accident scenario. Recently a software MAXCRED (MAXimum CREDible accident analysis) has been developed4• The package incorporates state-of-the-art mathe matical models, including some developed or modified by author for rapid quantitative and comprehensive MCAA. In this paper, MAXCRED has been used to visualize different accident scenarios in a typical chemical industry's storage unit situated in an in dustrial area near Madras. The results have been represented in terms of risk (damage* probability) contour maps on the accident site to enable easy and swift assessment of the maximum credible scenario. Besides demonstrating the utilizability of MAX CRED, this study also focusses attention on the need to bestow greater effort towards risk assess ment. These studies would generate safety con sciousness among plant managers and would also help in developing accident prevention strategies and installing damage control devices.
Authors: Faisall Khan, S. A. Abbasi
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W2185137772