Work

Globalization and Its (Dis-)Content: Trade Shocks and Voting Behavior

Year: 2015

Type: report

Abstract: We identify the causal effect of trade-integration with China and Eastern Europe on voting in Germany from 1987 to 2009.Looking at the entire political spectrum, we find that only extreme-right parties respond significantly to trade integration.Their vote share increases with import competition and decreases with export access opportunities.We unpack mechanisms using reduced form evidence and a causal mediation analysis.Two-thirds of the total effect of trade integration on voting appears to be driven by observable labor market adjustments, primarily changes in manufacturing employment.These results are mirrored in an individual-level analysis in the German Socioeconomic Panel.

Source: National Bureau of Economic Research

DOI: 10.3386/w21812

Authors: Christian Dippel, Robert Gold, Stephan Heblich

Institutions: National Bureau of Economic Research, University of California, Los Angeles, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, University of Bristol

Language: English

Topic: Populism, Right-Wing Movements

Subfield: Political Science and International Relations

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Peace, justice, and strong institutions

Open Access status: green

OpenAlex ID: W2198878422

Cites: 60

Cited by: 166

Related to: 10