Under the Thumb: Does Repression lead to Civil War?
Year: 2010
Type: preprint
Abstract: Is the type, duration, and intensity of political repression a prelude to civil war? This study assesses the role political repression plays in civil war initiation and duration? Specifically, do repressive governments risk civil war with extended repression? Furthermore, is the type, duration, or intensity of repression the most important factor in creating the conditions for civil war? Civil war is characterized by violence on the part of two parties, while political repression is the use of violence by the government. The greed hypothesis of civil war sees acquisition of resources as the motivating factor in conflict, while the grievance hypothesis emphasizes grievances as the basis for conflict initiation. Tests of these hypotheses have proven difficult and given mixed results. We attempt to bridge the divide between the more political based grievance hypothesis and the economic based greed hypothesis by assessing political repression and its effects on civil war initiation and duration within a large-N statistical model. Our attempt is similar to the insurgency model suggested by Davenport et al. (2008). We apply Granger causality testing to determine the theoretical causal direction of the relationship of repression and civil war in our models. This allows increased precision in assessing the impact of repression in our models and hypothesis testing. This paper engages the literature with a unique examination of the conflict processes involved in civil war and provides rigorous testing.
Source: SSRN Electronic Journal
Institutions: Grove City College, University of West Florida
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2216607421