Biological interactions in the boreal ecosystem under climate change : are the vole and predator cycles disappearing?
Year: 2014
Type: dissertation
Abstract: Due to climate change, the last 30 years have likely been the warmest in 1400 years. Incidentally, since the 1980s, animal population cycles have been collapsing in Europe. Previously, vole populations in northern Europe have undergone regular, high-amplitude fluctuations in density, reflected in the breeding success of many predators, in the composition of plant communities, in crop damage, and in the incidence of zoonotic diseases in the human population. Alarmingly, a pan-European dampening of rodent cycles was recently reported, and climate change is a potential contributor. However, although climate is considered an important factor shaping predator-vole interactions and thereby vole population dynamics, very little is currently known about the influence of climate on these phenomena. Using observational animal population and climate data collected throughout Finland during 1970-2011, I analysed the spatiotemporal variation in and the influence of climate on vole population dynamics and the interactions between voles and specialist, generalist, and avian predators. I built and validated a climate-based model for predator-vole interactions and used the model to predict how predator and vole population dynamics will respond to climate change. Climate had a profound and intricate influence on the interactions between predators and voles, and most importantly, could explain the observed geographical and temporal variation in predator-vole interactions, and in vole population dynamics. Most of the observed changes in vole population dynamics could be attributed to climate-dependent changes in the interactions between voles and the small mustelids: the small mustelids appeared to create delayed density dependence during winters in cold climates, and during summers in high-precipitation climates. According to the climate-based predator-vole interaction model, the highly regular and predictable vole cycle is likely to disappear, although in many regions, cyclicity is may persist and even strengthen in the near future.
Author: Katri Korpela
Language: English
Subfield: Ecology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: green
Funders: Helsingin Yliopisto, Turun Yliopisto
OpenAlex ID: W2229152180