Democratization Over Time
Year: 2013
Type: preprint
Abstract: Since Huntington (1991), scholars have sought to explain the waves that characterize the global spread of democracy. I examine how closely various accounts fit available data. Although no conclusive causal story is possible, I suggest an interpretation more consistent with the evidence than others considered. A key factor is leader turnover, which conditions the impact of income on political reform. More developed countries liberalize more than less developed ones soon after a new leader takes office. Once in power for some time, dictators block reform whether their country is rich or poor. Economic crises and military defeat predict liberalization, but for the most part only if they prompt or coincide with leader change. Aggregated to the global level, these effects help produce the pattern of waves. Other factors such as civil war or the outbreak of interstate war do not: in fact, leaders tend to tighten political control when wars begin. Although newly formed states are not consistently more or less democratic than pre-existing ones, they are slower to liberalize early on; the influx of post-colonial states helps explain the reverse wave of the 1960s. Momentum and international diffusion amplify these effects.
Source: SSRN Electronic Journal
Author: Daniel Treisman
Institution: University of California, Los Angeles
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2255608116