Dealing with Data Uncertainty
Year: 2005
Type: preprint
Abstract: True values of key macroeconomic variables are unobservable and can only be estimated. A key question for the Monetary Policy Committee is how best to take account of the resultant uncertainty in its economic assessment. Official estimates of economic variables are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and some private sector organisations publish surveys of business activity that may also give clues as to the underlying state of the economy. This article presents a simple methodology for deriving 'best guesses' of the true values of economic variables by weighting together official estimates and information from business surveys.
Source: SSRN Electronic Journal
Authors: James D. Ashley, Ronnie Driver, Simon Hayes, C. A. Jeffery
Institution: Bank of England
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2270048779