Consistent Estimates of Very Low HIV Incidence Among People Who Inject Drugs: New York City, 2005–2014
Year: 2016
Type: article
Study design: Observational Study
Abstract: OBJECTIVES: To compare methods for estimating low HIV incidence among persons who inject drugs. METHODS: We examined 4 methods in New York City, 2005 to 2014: (1) HIV seroconversions among repeat participants, (2) increase of HIV prevalence by additional years of injection among new injectors, (3) the New York State and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stratified extrapolation algorithm, and (4) newly diagnosed HIV cases reported to the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. RESULTS: The 4 estimates were consistent: (1) repeat participants: 0.37 per 100 person-years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.05/100 PY, 1.33/100 PY); (2) regression of prevalence by years injecting: 0.61 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.36/100 PY, 0.87/100 PY); (3) stratified extrapolation algorithm: 0.32 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.18/100 PY, 0.46/100 PY); and (4) newly diagnosed cases of HIV: 0.14 per 100 PY (95% CI = 0.11/100 PY, 0.16/100 PY). CONCLUSIONS: All methods appear to capture the same phenomenon of very low and decreasing HIV transmission among persons who inject drugs. Public Health Implications. If resources are available, the use of multiple methods would provide better information for public health purposes.
Language: English
Topic: HIV, Drug Use, Sexual Risk
Subfield: Epidemiology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: green
Awards: Evaluating ART for All HIV Seropositives: Can it work with the hardest cases?, G700208338, Reinvigorating HIV Prevention and Care for People Who Use Drugs: Accelerating Progress and Sustaining Gains in the Midst of Societal Disruption, Risk Factors for AIDS among persons who inject drugs: HIV transmission during and after the pandemic, HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, G931189836
OpenAlex ID: W2270363346