Year: 2014
Type: dissertation
Abstract: How does regime change affect non-state conflicts? Within the broader literature coup d états, riots and armed conflict is linked to transition between political regimes. For non-state conflicts there is a lack of systemic inquire about this topic. To investigate this topic I start by examining how states internal conditions put the contexts where violence becomes more or less likely. I argue that states with non-representative institutions and low state capacity put forth conditions where non-state conflicts are likely to erupt. Further, I investigate how regime change alters this institutional set up. The interplay of a state occupied reorganizing and the potential of a different future provide motivation and opportunity for actors dissatisfied with their current situation. If groups fail to display their importance and leverage in the transition period, stakes might be lost when the emerging regime enters office and politics start to consolidate. Using data on non-state conflicts from 1989-2008, I apply a negative binomial regression to test the effect of institutional set up and regime change on non-state conflicts. My analyses suggest a relationship between weak state capacity and non-state conflicts. Depending on choice of indicators, and the sample exposed, representative institutions might be an explanation of non-state conflicts. While I fail to find a general relationship between non-state conflicts and regime change, I find a strong relationship when allowing the indicator of regime change to include cases of state collapse. Year to year changes between political regimes cannot explain non-state conflicts, but long periods without a governing body does.
Author: Hanna Bugge
Language: English
Subfield: Sociology and Political Science
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2277595303