Birth expectations of women in the United States: 1973-88.
Year: 1995
Type: article
Abstract: A synthesis of statistics and statistical tables for 1973-88 are provided from the 1982 and 1988 National Survey of Family Growth for women aged 15-44 years all women and ever married women. Data is provided by age at the survey date and by race parity and birth cohort. Average expected births declined by as much as 10% between 1982 and 1988 among six of the eight 3-year birth cohorts of women. The decline for Black ever married women aged 40-44 years was from 4.26 to 2.53 children per woman. Cohort fertility for women born in 1947-49 and aged 33-35 years was 2.35 children in 1988 compared to average expected total births of 2.33. When the timing of first marriage is controlled the decline in cohort expectations over time disappears and birth expectations in 15 years are accurate. Birth expectations remained higher than the total fertility rate (TFR) by about 17-18% among women aged 25-29 years. Women aged 25-29 years in 1982 expected 2.22 total births and total fertility was 1.83; women aged 25-29 years in 1988 expected 2.33 births and total fertility was 1.93. Delayed childbearing among older women led to a total fertility of over 2 children in 1989 and 1990. The patterns for Black women were not as clear. Black teen cohorts for 1962-64 had an increase in birth expectations between 1982 and 1988 from 2.11 to 2.45 children or as much as 16% greater. However among Black women aged over 20 years in 1982 birth expectations declined by as much as 15%. Ever married Black women did not adequately provide for parallel estimation of expected and actual fertility 15 years later. The two child family norm was the expected fertility among all women aged 15-44 years. 44% of women in 1982 and 43% of women in 1982 expected to have two children in their lifetime. Between 1982 and 1988 there was a change in the expectation of childlessness from 7% to 9%. The proportion expecting only one child increased from 12% to 14%. These increases were accounted for by unmarried women and the differences were statistically significant.
Source: PubMed
Author: L S Peterson
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2294338711