Year: 2007
Type: article
Abstract: Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, \nbut models are often based on expert opinions of less understood \nfire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used \nan empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what \nfactors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We \ncreated and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based \non land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, \nand predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. \nWe then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a \nfuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to \ncreate a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads \ninfluence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk \nin new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically \nderived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative \nmethod to assess current and future fire risk based on management \nactions.
Authors: Crystal A. Kolden, Timothy J. Weigel
Language: English
Topic: Fire effects on ecosystems
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2323185328