Year: 2016
Type: dissertation
Abstract: Economic forecasting is important because it can affect the decision making processes\nof individuals, firms and governments so as to affect their behaviours. In\nthis thesis, I discuss different methodologies for forecasting and forecast evaluation.\nI also discuss the role of assumption of normality and the role of uncertainty\nin economic forecasting. The first chapter is the introduction of the thesis. In second\nchapter, I conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the performances\nof forecast combination and the forecast encompassing test under the forecast errors\nnon-normality. In third chapter, I examines the relationship between inflation\nforecast uncertainties and macroeconomic uncertainty for China by using different\nmeasures of uncertainties. I also investigate the relationship between inflation\nforecast uncertainties and inflation itself. In fourth chapter, I compute the probabilities\nof deflation for China by applying density forecast based on the theories\nand methodologies from previous two chapters. Particularly, I construct density\nforecasts for different forecast horizons by a joint distribution using Student-t\ncopula. The fifth chapter is conclusion.
Source: Figshare
Author: Yinkai Wu
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2345938783