Year: 2014
Type: article
Abstract: This paper examines people's subjective beliefs about probability distributions arising from repeated events, such as the number of heads in ten coin flips.Across elicitation methods and decision scenarios, people express beliefs that are systematically biased relative to the actual distribution, over-estimating the tails and under-estimating the shoulders of the distribution.While experts are relatively more accurate than novices, both show significant bias.
Author: Oleg Urminsky
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2397254997