International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles
Year: 2017
Type: preprint
Abstract: Most capital inflows are intermediated by domestic banks. We use transaction-level data on bank credit to estimate the causal impact of capital inflows on lending. The key mechanism is a failure of UIP, where capital inflows due to increases in global risk-appetite lead domestic banks to lower borrowing rates. Our estimates explain 43% of observed credit growth, where bank heterogeneity is critical for the aggregateimpact. Foreign banks, exchange-rate driven balance-sheet shocks, and the relaxation of firm-level collateral constraints cannot account for our large estimates. Textbookmodels, where UIP holds and capital flows are endogenous to demand cannot explain our findings.
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2494518512