Work

How predictable is the timing of a summer ice‐free Arctic?

Year: 2016

Type: article

Abstract: Climate model simulations give a large range of over 100 years for predictions of when the Arctic could first become ice free in the summer, and many studies have attempted to narrow this uncertainty range. However, given the chaotic nature of the climate system, what amount of spread in the prediction of an ice‐free summer Arctic is inevitable? Based on results from large ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model, we show that internal variability alone leads to a prediction uncertainty of about two decades, while scenario uncertainty between the strong (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5) and medium (RCP4.5) forcing scenarios adds at least another 5 years. Common metrics of the past and present mean sea ice state (such as ice extent, volume, and thickness) as well as global mean temperatures do not allow a reduction of the prediction uncertainty from internal variability.

Source: Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: 10.1002/2016gl070067

Authors: Alexandra Jahn, Jennifer E. Kay, Marika M. Holland, David M. Hall

Institutions: Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, NSF NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory

Language: English

Topic: Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics

Subfield: Atmospheric Science

Field: Earth and Planetary Sciences

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: bronze

Funder: National Science Foundation