Year: 2016
Type: article
Abstract: Emerging zoonotic viruses present persistent threats to global health, and a collaborative transboundary approach is needed for early detection of zoonotic viruses that have high potential to spread among humans. USAID's Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT project is one of many projects globally using a risk-based strategy to investigate emerging diseases threats. Here we examine common animal hosts and convergent mechanisms involved in spillover of zoonotic viruses in the past in order to identify high-risk interfaces for surveillance activities and interventions aimed at prevention. We also analyze previous outbreak reports to test several assumptions regarding common traits among zoonotic viruses that have amplified spillover by human-to-human transmission. We find that viruses transmitted to humans during circumstances that facilitated mixing of diverse animal species had significantly higher host plasticity (in that they have been reported in a taxonomically diverse host range). Viruses with higher host plasticity were more likely to amplify viral spillover by secondary human-to-human transmission and have broader geographic spread. We also provide evidence for a strong linear relationship between species abundance and viral spillover, with the more common species, especially those increasing in abundance, having transmitted more viruses to humans. PREDICT activities have thus focused on high-risk interfaces that facilitate mixing of animal species in areas with high biodiversity, dense human populations, and land use change that allows frequent contact between people and wildlife, particularly highly adaptable species increasing in abundance. Our data to date highlight viral traits and epidemiologic circumstances likely to facilitate future disease emergence, and our findings add to ongoing efforts to guide global disease surveillance.
Author: C. Kreuder Johnson
Institution: University of California, Davis
Language: English
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,900
OpenAlex ID: W2565952777