Work

The effects of ageing and urbanisation on China’s future rural and urban populations

Year: 2017

Type: article

Abstract: This paper estimates China’s future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural–urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China’s rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China’s urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.

Source: Asian Population Studies

DOI: 10.1080/17441730.2017.1286071

Authors: Quanrun Chen, Erik Dietzenbacher, Bart Los

Institutions: University of International Business and Economics, University of Groningen

Language: English

Topic: Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

Subfield: Demography

Field: Social Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funder: National Natural Science Foundation of China

Award: 投入产出局部闭模型的非线性、动态化研究及应用