Year: 2014
Type: preprint
Abstract: The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the RD design assigns a treatment or non-treatment, depending on whether or not an observed value of an assignment variable exceeds a fixed and known cutoff value. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian nonparametric regression modeling approach to RD designs, which exploits a local randomization feature. In this approach, the assignment variable is treated as a covariate, and a scalar-valued confounding variable is treated as a dependent variable (which may be a multivariate confounder score). Then, over the model's posterior distribution of locally-randomized subjects that cluster around the cutoff of the assignment variable, inference for causal effects are made within this random cluster, via two-group statistical comparisons of treatment outcomes and non-treatment outcomes. We illustrate the Bayesian nonparametric approach through the analysis of a real educational data set, to investigate the causal link between basic skills and teaching ability.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Karabatsos, George, Walker, Stephen G.
Language: English
Subfield: Statistics and Probability
Field: Mathematics
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2591888191