Work

Global hemispheric temperatures and co-shifting: A vector shifting-mean autoregressive analysis

Year: 2019

Type: article

Abstract: This paper examines local changes in annual temperature data for the northern and southern hemispheres (1850–2017) by using a multivariate generalization of the shifting-meanautoregressive model of González and Teräsvirta (2008). Univariate models are first fitted to each series by using the QuickShift methodology. Full information maximum likelihood estimates of a bivariate system of temperature equations are then obtained and asymptotic properties of the corresponding estimators considered. The system is then used to perform formal tests of co-movements, called co-shifting, in the series. The results show evidence of co-shifting in the two series.

Source: Journal of Econometrics

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.05.011

Authors: Matthew T. Holt, Timo Teräsvirta

Institutions: Virginia Tech, Aarhus University, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin

Language: English

Topic: Climate variability and models

Subfield: Global and Planetary Change

Field: Environmental Science

Domain: Physical Sciences

SDG: Climate action

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,200