Work

Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Year: 2018

Type: article

Abstract: Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.

Source: Applied Economics

DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1458193

Authors: Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

Institutions: Universidad Complutense de Madrid, CUNEF Universidad

Language: English

Topic: Monetary Policy and Economic Impact

Subfield: General Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Field: Economics, Econometrics and Finance

Domain: Social Sciences

SDG: Decent work and economic growth

Open Access status: green

Funders: University of Bath, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Banco de España