The Probability of Default Under IFRS 9: Multi-period Estimation and Macroeconomic Forecast
Year: 2017
Type: article
Abstract: In this paper we propose a straightforward, flexible and intuitive computational framework for the multi-period probability of default estimation incorporating macroeconomic forecasts. The concept is based on Markov models, the estimated economic adjustment coefficient and the official economic forecasts of the Czech National Bank. The economic forecasts are taken into account in a separate step to better distinguish between idiosyncratic and systemic risk. This approach is also attractive from the interpretational point of view. The proposed framework can be used especially when calculating lifetime expected credit losses under IFRS 9.
Authors: Tomáš Vaněk, David Hampel
Institution: Mendel University in Brno
Language: English
Subfield: Finance
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: diamond
OpenAlex ID: W2608384376