System cost of energy generation scenarios for South Africa: understanding the real cost of integrating energy generation technologies
Year: 2017
Type: dissertation
Abstract: South Africa's electricity market has realized much growth with the introduction of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers Program (REIPPPP).This program enables the increase in energy generation from renewable technologies.Moving forward, the future targets for renewable generation increase to levels where they contribute significantly to system supply.This research sought to understand the system costs of integrating utility scale renewable energy generation technologies into the South African electricity system and thus considered future energy scenarios with higher renewable penetration levels.In addition, the research investigated Levelized Cost of Energy for the generating technologies encompassing renewables (solar PV, CSP and wind) and nonrenewables (coal, gas nuclear).A search through literature exhibited many electricity-modelling tools.A bottom-up approach was chosen, which captured the technical details of the generators and electricity network.Further, the selected electricity modelling software was PLEXOS.This tool enabled the capture of the South African electricity network, including all the generators.The model was a single node model, where the system demand aggregates at the node.Using the targets of a WWF high scenario, where renewables' penetration was 25% by energy and 41% by installed power, an hourly simulation was run for the year 2030, while 2010 actual system demand was used and forecasted to 2030.The attempt was to understand the real system cost.Hence, a base scenario with unconstrained generators and then a constraints scenario containing all generator parameters such as Minimum Stable Level, availabilities and so forth, was run.The results showed the base case had a system cost of R0.39/kWh, while the constraints scenario R0.48/kWh.In both scenarios, the unserved energy was negligible compared to the total generation costs.The renewable energy total capacity factor was 29% for the simulation.Total generation for the year was 409819.07GWh and the corresponding total cost was 10 trillion Rand.From the constraint model, the LCOE for CSP was R1.44/kWh, second was solar PV at 1.25/kWh, and wind was R1.02/kWh, while the lowest were the existing plants (OCGT, hydro, nuclear, pumped storage) well below R0.65/kWh, as their capital and interest were assumed to have been settled by the start of the simulation.Integration elements comprising the number of generators' start-up and shutdown, water consumption and emissions were quantified.The emissions were significant cost contributors, when using the price of R48/tonne.
Author: Mark David Sklar-Chik
Language: English
Subfield: Electrical and Electronic Engineering
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2609490024