Work

Impacts of climate change on agricultural water resources and adaptation on the North China Plain

Year: 2017

Type: article

Abstract: Climate change is having a considerable impact on the availability of water resources for agricultural production on the North China Plain (NCP), where the shortage of water is currently disturbing the stability and sustainability of agricultural production with respect to the drying tendency since the 1950s. However, although potential evapotranspiration (ET) has shown a decreasing trend under climate change, actual ET has slightly increased with an acceleration in hydrological cycling. Global climate model (GCM) ensemble projections predict that by the 2050s, the increased crop water demand and intensified ET resulting from global warming will reduce water resources surplus (Precipitation–ET) about 4%–24% and increase significantly the irrigation water demand in crop growth periods. This study assesses possible mitigation and adaptation measures for enabling agricultural sustainability. It is revealed that reducing the sowing area of winter wheat (3.0%–15.9%) in water-limited basins, together with improvement in crop water-use efficiency would effectively mitigate water shortages and intensify the resilience of agricultural systems to climate change.

Source: Advances in Climate Change Research

DOI: 10.1016/j.accre.2017.05.007

Authors: Xing-Guo Mo, Shi Hu, Zhong-Hui Lin, Su-Xia Liu, Jun Xia

Institutions: Chinese Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan University, State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science

Language: English

Topic: Climate change impacts on agriculture

Subfield: Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics

Field: Agricultural and Biological Sciences

Domain: Life Sciences

SDGs: Climate action, Zero hunger, Clean water and sanitation

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $2,000