Decarbonization and the time-delay between peak CO2 emissions and concentrations
Year: 2015
Type: preprint
Abstract: Carbon-dioxide (CO2) is the main contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and the timing of its peak concentration in the atmosphere is likely to govern the timing of maximum radiative forcing. While dynamics of atmospheric CO2 is governed by multiple time-constants, we idealize this by a single time-constant to consider some of the factors describing the time-delay between peaks in CO2 emissions and concentrations. This time-delay can be understood as the time required to bring CO2 emissions down from its peak to a small value, and is governed by the rate of decarbonizaton of economic activity. This decarbonization rate affects how rapidly emissions decline after having achieved their peak, and a rapid decline in emissions is essential for limiting peak radiative forcing. Long-term mitigation goals for CO2 should therefore consider not only the timing of peak emissions, but also the rate of decarbonization. We discuss implications for mitigation of the fact that the emissions peak corresponds to small but nonzero emissions. One consequence is that the timing of peak CO2 is not influenced by its atmospheric lifetime, despite its long lifetime being the origin of the delay in the concentration peak.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Author: Ashwin K Seshadri
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W265795061