Year: 2017
Type: article
Abstract: We propose to extend demographic multistate models by adding a behavioural element: behavioural rules explain intentions and thus transitions. Our framework is inspired by the Theory of Planned Behaviour. We exemplify our approach with a model of migration from Senegal to France. Model parameters are determined using empirical data where available. Parameters for which no empirical correspondence exists are determined by calibration. Age- and period-specific migration rates are used for model validation. Our approach adds to the toolkit of demographic projection by allowing for shocks and social influence, which alter behaviour in non-linear ways, while sticking to the general framework of multistate modelling. Our simulations yield that higher income growth in Senegal leads to higher emigration rates in the medium term, while a decrease in fertility yields lower emigration rates.
Source: Population Studies
Authors: Anna Klabunde, Sabine Zinn, Frans Willekens, Matthias Leuchter
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W2766084869