Year: 2017
Type: article
Abstract: Rapid climatic changes and increasing human influence at high elevations around the world will have profound impacts on mountain biodiversity. However, forecasts from statistical models (e.g. species distribution models) rarely consider that plant community changes could substantially lag behind climatic changes, hindering our ability to make temporally realistic projections for the coming century. Indeed, the magnitudes of lags, and the relative importance of the different factors giving rise to them, remain poorly understood. We review evidence for three types of lag: "dispersal lags" affecting plant species' spread along elevational gradients, "establishment lags" following their arrival in recipient communities, and "extinction lags" of resident species. Variation in lags is explained by variation among species in physiological and demographic responses, by effects of altered biotic interactions, and by aspects of the physical environment. Of these, altered biotic interactions could contribute substantially to establishment and extinction lags, yet impacts of biotic interactions on range dynamics are poorly understood. We develop a mechanistic community model to illustrate how species turnover in future communities might lag behind simple expectations based on species' range shifts with unlimited dispersal. The model shows a combined contribution of altered biotic interactions and dispersal lags to plant community turnover along an elevational gradient following climate warming. Our review and simulation support the view that accounting for disequilibrium range dynamics will be essential for realistic forecasts of patterns of biodiversity under climate change, with implications for the conservation of mountain species and the ecosystem functions they provide.
Source: Global Change Biology
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13976
Institutions: ETH Zurich, Institute of Integrative Biology, University of Lausanne, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research, Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés, Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Murdoch University, University of Vienna, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, La Trobe University, Research Institute for Nature and Forest, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Universidad Nacional del Comahue, University of Concepción, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity, Environment Agency Austria, Montana State University, University of Vermont, Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Natural History Museum of Denmark
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: bronze
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer, University of Bern, Instituto de Ciencias Matemáticas, European Commission, Austrian Science Fund, Carlsbergfondet, Umeå Universitet, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, H2020 European Research Council
Awards: G2565904405, G3248020051, G3411220531, G434337789, G714304886, G7508459993, Novel interactions and species’ responses to climate change, Dimensions: Collaborative: The climate cascade: functional and evolutionary consequences of climatic change on species, trait, and genetic diversity in a temperate ant community, G907279666
OpenAlex ID: W2767366136