Year: 2010
Type: article
Abstract: Probability-matching is a well-documented suboptimal behavior that arises in simple prediction tasks.We identify two distinct, local choice strategies that both give rise to probabilitymatching behavior on a global level.Using a dual-task paradigm, we evaluate the hypothesis that these qualitatively different strategies exhibit different demands on individuals' central executive resources.We find that participants placed under a concurrent working memory are driven away from the one-trial-back strategy-utilized by participants without a working memory load-and towards a strategy that integrates a longer window of past outcomes into the current prediction.In other words, the demands of the concurrent task appeared to shift the prediction strategies used by decision-makers in our study.
Authors: A. Ross Otto, Arthur B. Markman, Eric Taylor
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2767473072