Why Black Swan events must occur
Year: 2018
Type: preprint
Abstract: We show that there exist unimaginable, or Black Swan events which have the property of occurring. It follows as a corollary of our theorem that any computational model of decision-making under uncertainty is incomplete in the sense that not all events that occur can be taken into account. In the context of decision theory we argue that this constitutes a stronger sense of uncertainty than Knightian uncertainty.
Source: arXiv (Cornell University)
Authors: Thomas Santoli, Christoph Siebenbrunner
Language: English
Subfield: General Decision Sciences
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2789274615