Adapting nature conservation to climate change: the importance of microclimate
Year: 2018
Type: conference-paper
Abstract: compare the results to those obtained using coarse-scale climate data. I show that the results of bioclimate models are fundamentally linked to the grid cell resolution of the data used to drive them. Models that rely on coarse-resolution spatial associations between species distributions and climate variables predict major range shifts, whereas fine-scale models predict localised patterns of change that more closely match observed distribution shifts. The results suggest that, while the predicted proportional change in climatically suitable habitat is not strongly scale-dependent, the prediction from most existing bioclimate models: that the trailing edge of species will retract rapidly over large distances, is likely to be false. This is further supported by a comprehensive multi-taxa meta-analysis of observed range shifts. While range expansions are widely documented in the literature, evidence for range retractions is, at best, equivocal. In consequence, the redesign of protected area networks to accommodate large-scale range shifts may be less effective than focusing on protecting populations of species within their existing geographic range.
Author: Ilya Maclean
Language: English
Subfield: Ecological Modeling
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
OpenAlex ID: W2804811330