Lifestyle index for mortality prediction using multiple ageing cohorts in the USA, UK and Europe
Year: 2018
Type: article
Abstract: Current mortality prediction indexes are mainly based on functional morbidity and comorbidity, with limited information for risk prevention. This study aimed to develop and validate a modifiable lifestyle-based mortality predication index for older adults. Data from 51,688 participants (56% women) aged ≥50 years in 2002 Health and Retirement Study, 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and 2004 Survey of Health Ageing and Retirement in Europe were used to estimate coefficients of the index with cohort-stratified Cox regression. Models were validated across studies and compared to the Lee index (having comorbid and morbidity predictors). Over an average of 11-year follow-up, 10,240 participants died. The lifestyle index includes smoking, drinking, exercising, sleep quality, BMI, sex and age; showing adequate model performance in internal validation (C-statistic 0.79; D-statistic 1.94; calibration slope 1.13) and in all combinations of internal-external cross-validation. It outperformed Lee index (e.g. differences in C-statistic = 0.01, D-statistic = 0.17, P < 0.001) consistently across health status. The lifestyle index stratified participants into varying mortality risk groups, with those in the top quintile having 13.5% excess absolute mortality risk over 10 years than those in the bottom 50th centile. Our lifestyle index with easy-assessable behavioural factors and improved generalizability may maximize its usability for personalized risk management.
Source: Scientific Reports
Language: English
Subfield: Demography
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $2,690
Awards: Multinational Advancement of Research Infrastructures on Ageing, G1178032220, G1237079599, G1299585435, G1428006373, G1565542540, G1608581485, G1708035608, G1750703574, G1778268290, G1781191216, G1820526844, G2077389594, Mega Meta Data Set of the Health and Retirement Surveys Around the World, G2343781458, G24207250, G2465118858, G2496819784, G2881429984, G288447808, G3166864496, G323020161, G3361099077, G3440788226, G3457581384, G3687180791, Archiving & Creating User Friendly Data: the Longitudinal Aging Survey in India, G4165969582, RAND Center for the Study of Aging, Upgrading the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe – preparatory phase, G4545110052, G4569152855, G4723430573, G4847675667, G503278667, G504669776, G5207492846, G5618942462, G5745945343, G5857780965, G598697797, G6055688980, G6476390097, G6678519423, G6767647029, G6969501727, G6978085111, DEVELOPING AN ISRAELI VERSION OF THE HRS/SHARE PROJECT, G7664789006, G8072554765, Longitudinal Enhancement and Access imProvement of the SHARE infrastructure, G8875743412, G8957671751, G9000113159, Understanding and Improving Healthcare Decision-Making and Outcomes for People Living with Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias, Health and Retirement Study: Yrs 35-40, Integrating Information about Aging Surveys: Novel Integration of Contextual Data to Study Late-Life Cognition and Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementia and Dementia Care, G93458789, G938892667, G939349750
OpenAlex ID: W2805218995