Year: 2018
Type: article
Abstract: Most naturalised and invasive alien plant species were originally introduced to regions for horticultural purposes. However, many regions now face an invasion debt from ornamental alien species, which have not yet naturalised. In this regard, climate change represents a threat as it may lower the barriers to naturalisation for some ornamental alien species. Identifying those species is extremely important for anticipating impending invasions. To identify predictors of naturalisation, we modelled the effects of climate, nursery availability and species characteristics on the current European naturalisation success of 2,073 ornamental aliens commonly planted in European gardens. We then used the resulting model together with climate projections for 2050 to forecast future naturalisation risks for the 1,583 species not yet naturalised in Europe. We found that non‐European naturalised range size, climatic suitability, propagule pressure, having a dioecious sexual system and plant height jointly explained current naturalisation success in Europe. By 2050, naturalisation probability projections increased by more than 0.1 for 41 species, and only decreased by more than 0.1 for one species. Policy implications. Using predictions based on our integrated model of alien ornamental naturalisation success, we identified species with high future naturalisation risk and species with high projected increases in naturalisation potential in Europe under climate change. This species list allows for prioritisation of monitoring and regulation of ornamental plants to mitigate the invasion debt.
Source: Journal of Applied Ecology
Authors: Emily Haeuser, Wayne Dawson, Wilfried Thuiller, Stefan Dullinger, Svenja Block, Oliver Bossdorf, Marta Carboni, Luisa Conti, Iwona Dullinger, Franz Essl, Günther Klonner, Dietmar Moser, Tamara Münkemüller, Madalin Parepa, Matthew V. Talluto, Holger Kreft, Jan Pergl, Petr Pyšek, Patrick Weigelt, Marten Winter, Martin Hermy, Sebastiaan Van der Veken, Cristina Roquet, Mark van Kleunen
Institutions: University of Konstanz, San Diego State University, Durham University, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine, Université Savoie Mont Blanc, University of Vienna, University of Tübingen, University of South Bohemia in České Budějovice, University of Göttingen, Czech Academy of Sciences, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany, Charles University, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, KU Leuven, Taizhou University, Taizhou University
Language: English
Subfield: Nature and Landscape Conservation
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDGs: Life on land, Climate action
Open Access status: green
Award: G5565680517
OpenAlex ID: W2807715769