Year: 2007
Type: article
Abstract: The aim of this project was to review literature on the analysis of extreme risks, focusing primarily on ideas and developments in a range of disciplines that may be useful in the data poor environments typical of biosecurity risk assessments.The report begins by outlining several case studies with varying levels of data, examining the role for extreme event risk analysis.The case studies include BA's analysis of fire blight and New Zealand apples, bank operational risk and several technical failures.The report then surveys recent developments in methods relevant to evaluating extreme risks and evaluates their properties.These include methods for fraud detection in banks, formal extreme value theory, Bayesian approaches, qualitative reasoning, and adversary and advocacy models.The document includes a supplementary report as an appendix, providing an overview of the quantification of bank operational risks.The report concludes that evaluations of extreme risks should be supported by quantitative analysis, even in data poor environments, but that the most effective strategies give the final word to qualitative reasoning.Evaluations are most effective when stakeholders and experts are able to examine and test data, models and reasoning, and when disagreements are heard by an independent arbitrator or panel.
Authors: James Franklin, Scott A. Sisson
Language: English
Topic: Risk and Safety Analysis
Subfield: Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Field: Engineering
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
Funders: Louisiana State University, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Government, Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute, Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, University of Melbourne, Division of Mathematical Sciences, Division of Chemical, Bioengineering, Environmental, and Transport Systems
Award: G6669432518
OpenAlex ID: W28793768