Year: 2018
Type: article
Abstract: PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Atmospheric blocking events represent some of the most high-impact weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, yet they have often been a cause for concern in future climate projections. There has been low confidence in predicted future changes in blocking, despite relatively good agreement between climate models on a decline in blocking. This is due to the lack of a comprehensive theory of blocking and a pervasive underestimation of blocking occurrence by models. This paper reviews the state of knowledge regarding blocking under climate change, with the aim of providing an overview for those working in related fields. RECENT FINDINGS: Several avenues have been identified by which blocking can be improved in numerical models, though a fully reliable simulation remains elusive (at least, beyond a few days lead time). Models are therefore starting to provide some useful information on how blocking and its impacts may change in the future, although deeper understanding of the processes at play will be needed to increase confidence in model projections. There are still major uncertainties regarding the processes most important to the onset, maintenance and decay of blocking and advances in our understanding of atmospheric dynamics, for example in the role of diabatic processes, continue to inform the modelling and prediction efforts. SUMMARY: The term 'blocking' covers a diverse array of synoptic patterns, and hence a bewildering range of indices has been developed to identify events. Results are hence not considered fully trustworthy until they have been found using several different methods. Examples of such robust results are the underestimation of blocking by models, and an overall decline in future occurrence, albeit with a complex regional and seasonal variation. In contrast, hemispheric trends in blocking over the recent historical period are not supported by different methods, and natural variability will likely dominate regional variations over the next few decades.
Source: Current Climate Change Reports
Institutions: University of Oxford, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Instituto de Geociencias, University of Reading, Seoul National University, University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, University of Missouri, ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: hybrid
Estimated APC paid: $4,490
Funders: National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Energy, Sight Research UK, University of Reading, National Research Foundation, Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung, National Research Foundation of Korea, Norges Forskningsråd, Ministry of Science and ICT, South Korea, Scheme for Promotion of Academic and Research Collaboration, Natural Environment Research Council
OpenAlex ID: W2883967485