Year: 1988
Type: report
Abstract: The informational content of different forecasts can be ce.pared by regressing the actual change in a variabl, to b. forecasted on forecasts of the change.We use the procedure in Fair and Shiller (1987) to examine the informational content of three sets of ex ant, forecasts: the American Statistical Association and National Bureau of Econonic Research Survey (SA), Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), and Wharton Economic Forecasting Associates (WEFA).We compare these forecasts to each other and to quasi ax ante" forecasts generated from a vector autoregressive model, an autoregressive components model, and a large-scale structural model (the Fair modal).
DOI: 10.3386/w2503
Authors: Ray Fair, Robert Shiller
Institution: National Bureau of Economic Research
Language: English
Field: Decision Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2892210372