Limited evidence of anthropogenic influence on the 2011-12 Extreme Rainfall over Southeast Australia
Year: 2013
Type: article
Abstract: Extreme rainfall over southeast Australia was examined and its teleconnection with ENSO in observations and a selection of CMIP5 models. In observations, the magnitude of anomalously cool SSTs in the Nino-3.4 region has a far greater effect on Rx5day in SE Australia compared to the magnitude of anomalously warm SSTs. Five CMIP5 models were selected as the focus for the study as they possess aspects of ENSO variability and an asymmetric ENSO-extreme rainfall relationship. Using these models, it was found little evidence of significant change in the ENSO extreme rainfall relationship between 1861-90 and 1976-2005. The PDFs of Rx5day values in La Ninao seasons also show non-significant differences between the same periods. Inter-annual variability related to ENSO has played a greater role than any long-term trend on the magnitude of extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia over the period 1861-2005.
Language: English
Subfield: Global and Planetary Change
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
SDG: Climate action
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2908557823