Year: 2018
Type: article
Abstract: This paper examines the extent of polarization in the United States in the current political climate. It was predicted that individual beliefs would be less polarized than news media makes it seem because while the political parties are moving further toward the poles, there is no evidence to suggest that individuals are doing the same. Using Berkeley’s Survey Documentation and Analysis tool, data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) was analyzed to test this premise. The ANES measured individuals’ party identification. The analysis focused on those who identify as Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. The survey then asked those same individuals how they felt about a number of political issues. Six issues were chosen that are considered a priority to voters (gun control, gay marriage, federal welfare spending, building a wall with Mexico, Syrian Refugees, and affirmative action). Cross-tabulations were conducted to examine the differences in issue positions across party identification expecting those differences to be smaller than the popularly perceived polarization. Further, twenty undergraduate students in a political science course were asked to guess how they thought people responded to the survey. The evidence shows that perceived public opinion is often inaccurate compared to actual public opinion. On some issues, ANES respondents answered very closely to how one might expect based on the beliefs of the political parties, but on other issues their answers were very different. The students also often over or underestimated responses to certain issues and those estimates tended to fall in line with how one might expect a Democrat or Republican to respond.
Author: Sarah B. Carey
Language: English
Field: Social Sciences
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2941537350