Work

On the Economic Significance of Stock Market Prediction and the No Free Lunch Theorem

Year: 2019

Type: article

Abstract: Forecasting of stock market returns is a challenging research activity that is now expanding with the availability of new data sources, markets, financial instruments, and algorithms. At its core, the predictability of prices still raises important questions. Here, we discuss the economic significance of the prediction accuracy. To develop this question, we collect the daily series prices of almost half of the publicly traded companies around the world over a period of ten years and formulate some trading strategies based on their prediction. Proper visualization of these data together with the use of the No Free Lunch theoretical framework gives some unexpected results that show how the a priori less accurate algorithms and inefficient strategies can offer better results than the a priori best alternatives in some particular subsets of data that have a clear interpretation in terms of economic sectors and regions.

Source: IEEE Access

DOI: 10.1109/access.2019.2921092

Authors: Carlos Bousono-Calzon, Josue Bustarviejo-Munoz, Pedro Aceituno-Aceituno, Jose Joaquin Escudero-Garzas

Institutions: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Texas A&M University

Language: English

Topic: Stock Market Forecasting Methods

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: gold

Estimated APC paid: $1,750

Funder: Universidad Carlos III de Madrid