Year: 1999
Type: article
Abstract: This paper examines the duration and magnitude of cycles in commodity prices. We find that for the majority of commodities, price slumps last longer than price booms. How far prices fall in a slump is found to be slightly larger than how far they tend to rebound in a subsequent boom. We also find little evidence of a consistent 'shape' to cycles in commodity prices. For all commodities, the probability of an end to a slump in prices is independent of the time already spent in the slump, and for most commodities, the probability of an end to a boom in prices is independent of the time already spent in the boom.
Source: IMF Working Paper
Institution: International Monetary Fund
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: bronze
OpenAlex ID: W2953513804