A Risk-Based Simulation Model for Drought Management in Durham, NC
Year: 1999
Type: dissertation
Abstract: The Department of Environmental Resources of Durham, NC, owns and operates two raw water reservoirs: Lake Michie on the Flat River and the Little River reservoir. To ensure that reservoir releases are adequate to meet target demands, Durham has relied on mathematical models developed by Research Triangle Institute and the University of North Carolina. However, most of the modeling work predates theaddition of the Little River reservoir in 1988. In 1999, Durham decided to update its decision support system for drought management with a model that includes both reservoirs. This report describes a risk-based simulation model that was developed using 72-years of historical data for reservoir inflows, precipitation, and evaporation. The model simulates reservoir performance for each year of record using any target demand and any initial storage volume in any week of the year. The risk that target demand cannot be met is determined by the model in probabilistic terms to be used as criteria for drought management decisions. If a risk is considered unacceptable, alternative conservation policies can be explored with the model to determine an appropriate solution. An analysis of the impacts of alternative conservation policies on risk in meeting demand produced results that will be usefel in drought contingency planning by Durham. These findings define the effects of rationing, its duration, and start date of conservation on the risk that future demands can be met.
DOI: 10.17615/5m9d-j494
Author: Carter, Stephen C.
Institution: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Language: English
Subfield: Water Science and Technology
Field: Environmental Science
Domain: Physical Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2968949074