Year: 2019
Type: article
Abstract: BACKGROUND: The identification of individuals at increased risk of poor health-related outcomes is a priority. Geriatric research has proposed several indicators shown to be associated with these outcomes, but a head-to-head comparison of their predictive accuracy is still lacking. We therefore aimed to compare the accuracy of five geriatric health indicators in predicting different outcomes among older persons: frailty index (FI), frailty phenotype (FP), walking speed (WS), multimorbidity, and a summary score including clinical diagnoses, functioning, and disability (the Health Assessment Tool; HAT). METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Kungsholmen, an ongoing longitudinal study including 3363 people aged 60+. To inspect the accuracy of geriatric health indicators, we employed areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the prediction of 3-year and 5-year mortality, 1-year and 3-year unplanned hospitalizations (1+), and contacts with healthcare providers in the 6 months before and after baseline evaluation (2+). RESULTS: FI, WS, and HAT showed the best accuracy in the prediction of mortality [AUC(95%CI) for 3-year mortality 0.84 (0.82-0.86), 0.85 (0.83-0.87), 0.87 (0.85-0.88) and AUC(95%CI) for 5-year mortality 0.84 (0.82-0.86), 0.85 (0.83-0.86), 0.86 (0.85-0.88), respectively]. Unplanned hospitalizations were better predicted by the FI [AUC(95%CI) 1-year 0.73 (0.71-0.76); 3-year 0.72 (0.70-0.73)] and HAT [AUC(95%CI) 1-year 0.73 (0.71-0.75); 3-year 0.71 (0.69-0.73)]. The most accurate predictor of multiple contacts with healthcare providers was multimorbidity [AUC(95%CI) 0.67 (0.65-0.68)]. Predictions were generally less accurate among younger individuals (< 78 years old). CONCLUSION: Specific geriatric health indicators predict clinical outcomes with different accuracy. Comprehensive indicators (HAT, FI, WS) perform better in predicting mortality and hospitalization. Multimorbidity exhibits the best accuracy in the prediction of multiple contacts with providers.
Source: BMC Medicine
Language: English
Topic: Frailty in Older Adults
Subfield: Geriatrics and Gerontology
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: gold
Estimated APC paid: $3,170
Awards: G144377262, The body-mind connection: Exploring the biological mechanisms underlying the effects of somatic health on brain aging, G2471528230, G2494488623, G3904392250, Does our healthcare system truly fit older people? Impact of multidimensional health trajectories on the use of medical and social care services, G5344870692, Phenotypes of healthier aging: the role of environmental, behavioural and biological factors on health trajectories, Aging through life: Identifying new pathways for living longer and healthier, G6115786260, G6388562612, Disentangling complexity of health in aging: A new research environment to pave the road for individualized medicine, G6540362635, G7282505145, G8163365334
OpenAlex ID: W2978966359