The Impact of Treasury Yields on US Presidential Approval, 1960–2010
Year: 2019
Type: article
Abstract: Iain Hardie, Ailsa Henderson & Charlotte Rommerskirchen*School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK CONTACT Charlotte Rommerskirchen [email protected] School of Social and Political Science, University of Edinburgh, Chrystal Macmillan Building, EH8 9LD, Edinburgh, UK Supplemental data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2019.1680962ABSTRACTThe ‘power of bond markets’ is a widely assumed and poorly understood feature of the global economy. We demonstrate that even in a bond market as stable as the United States this influence is considerable. In this article, we scrutinise a particularly direct influence, the impact of US Treasury yields on presidential approval rates. Our empirical analysis from 1961 to 2010 demonstrates that rising/falling bond yields lead to a decline/increase in approval rates. We show that this impact is mediated via the US mortgage market. The stronger the rise in mortgage rates, the stronger the influence of Treasury yields on presidential approval. We then outline the broader possible political impacts of this, particularly given foreign and domestic central bank ownership of US Treasuries.
Source: New Political Economy
Institution: University of Edinburgh
Language: English
Subfield: Economics and Econometrics
Domain: Social Sciences
Open Access status: green
OpenAlex ID: W2987210465