Work

Forecasting the Results of Experiments: Piloting an Elicitation Strategy

Year: 2020

Type: article

Abstract: Forecasts of experimental results can clarify the interpretation of research results, mitigate publication bias, and improve experimental designs. We collect forecasts of the results of three Registered Reports preliminarily accepted to the Journal of Development Economics, randomly varying four features: (1) small versus large reference values, (2) whether predictions are in raw units or standard deviations, (3) text-entry versus slider responses, and (4) small versus large slider bounds. Forecasts are generally robust to elicitation features, though wider slider bounds are associated with higher forecasts throughout the forecast distribution. We make preliminary recommendations on how many forecasts should be gathered.

Source: AEA Papers and Proceedings

DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20201080

Authors: Stefano DellaVigna, Nicholas Otis, Eva Vivalt

Institutions: University of California, Berkeley, Australian National University

Language: English

Topic: Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Subfield: Management Science and Operations Research

Field: Decision Sciences

Domain: Social Sciences

Open Access status: green

Funder: Alfred P. Sloan Foundation

Award: Research - University of California, Berkeley (2019)