Work

A Comparison of Prior Elicitation Aggregation Using the Classical Method and SHELF

Year: 2021

Type: article

Abstract: Subjective Bayesian prior distributions elicited from experts can be aggregated together to form group priors. This paper compares aggregated priors formed by equal weight aggregation, the classical method and the Sheffield elicitation framework to each other and individual expert priors, using an expert elicitation carried out for a clinical trial. Aggregation methods and individual expert prior distributions are compared using proper scoring rules to compare the informativeness and calibration of the distributions. The three aggregation methods outperform the individual experts, and the Sheffield elicitation framework performs best among them.

Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society)

DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12691

Authors: Cameron J. Williams, Kevin J. Wilson, Nina Wilson

Institution: Newcastle University

Language: English

Topic: Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference

Subfield: Statistics and Probability

Field: Mathematics

Domain: Physical Sciences

Open Access status: hybrid

Estimated APC paid: $3,000

OpenAlex ID: W3003945826

FWCI: 3.493

Cites: 28

Cited by: 28

Related to: 10