Understanding the HIV Epidemic Among MSM in Baltimore: A Modeling Study Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions and Who Acquired and Contributed to Infections
Year: 2020
Type: article
Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States are disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the impact of past interventions and contribution of different population groups to incident MSM HIV infections. SETTING: Baltimore, US. METHODS: We used a deterministic model, parameterized and calibrated to demographic and epidemic Baltimore MSM data, to estimate the fraction of HIV infections among MSM averted by condoms and antiretroviral therapy (ART) over 1984-2017 and the fraction of infections acquired and transmission contributed by MSM from different demographic groups and disease and care continuum stages over 10-year periods from 1988 to 2017, using population attributable fractions. RESULTS: Condom use and ART averted 19% (95% uncertainty interval: 14%-25%) and 23% (15%-31%) of HIV infections that would have occurred since 1984 and 1996, respectively. Over 2008-2017, 46% (41%-52%) of incident infections were acquired by and 35% (27%-49%) of transmissions contributed by MSM aged 18-24 years (who constitute 27% of all MSM, 19% of HIV+ MSM). MSM with undiagnosed HIV infection, those with diagnosed infection but not in care, and those on ART contributed to 41% (31%-54%), 46% (25%-56%), and 14% (7%-28%) of transmissions, respectively. CONCLUSION: Condoms and ART have modestly impacted the HIV epidemic among Baltimore MSM to date. Interventions reaching MSM with diagnosed infection who are not in care should be implemented because the largest percentage of HIV transmissions among Baltimore MSM is attributed to this group.
Institutions: Imperial College London, Medical Research Council, Fred Hutch Cancer Center, Johns Hopkins University, Maryland Department of Health, Johns Hopkins Medicine, University of Washington, National Institutes of Health, New York State Psychiatric Institute, HIV Center for Clinical and Behavioral Studies, Columbia University, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Language: English
Subfield: Infectious Diseases
Field: Medicine
Domain: Health Sciences
Open Access status: hybrid
Funders: Johns Hopkins University, European Commission, Department for International Development, National Institutes of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Center for AIDS Research, University of Washington, Medical Research Council, National Institute of Mental Health, National Institute on Drug Abuse, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership
Awards: G1052272520, G127891921, G1945800331, G2347075150, G2483435703, MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, G3166327464, G347747909, G3664383483, G410129812, Social networks, social resources, and HIV transmission, G6470771654, G6520098237, G7063735130, G7178514535, G7659600897, G8564440678, HIV Prevention Trials Network Leadership and Operations Center, The Johns Hopkins Center for AIDS Research (JHU CFAR), SDMC: HIV Prevention Trials Network
OpenAlex ID: W3009559920